International Sugar Prices are Still Close to Their Five-Month High
International raw sugar prices, however, hit a five-month high of 16.10 cents per pound. Since then, they have somewhat withdrawn.
International Sugar Price Update:
On Monday, March 30, 2026, international raw sugar prices hit a five-month high of 16.10 cents per pound, but they have since somewhat decreased. Benchmark pricing are very close to 13.80 cents per pound as of mid-April 2026.
While cocoa prices marginally increased on Friday, raw sugar futures on ICE saw a modest decline from the five-month high of the previous session.
Just that. The main cause of the high sensitivity of global sugar prices to energy markets is this "ethanol-sugar" flip. As of April 2026, this dynamic is becoming more intense due to a number of variables.
Current Market Drivers:
Energy Prices and Biofuel:
Sugar prices are usually supported by higher crude oil prices, which have lately surged around $82–$100 per barrel due to geopolitical issues (such as the Middle East War). High energy prices encourage mills, especially in Brazil, to use more sugarcane to produce ethanol instead of sugar.
Worldwide Supply Surplus:
Strong supply is being reported by major producers including Brazil, Thailand, and India, which is driving down prices.
India: The government may permit more exports, and production for the 2025–2026 season is up 7.7%–9% year over year.
Brazil: The Center-South produces about 40.25 million tonnes of sugar, which is still a large amount.
Disruptions to Trade:
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has affected logistics, limiting around 6% of the global sugar trade.
Weather Hazards:
Beginning in August 2026, analysts are keeping a careful eye on the possibility of an El Niño event, which might endanger future crops in Thailand and India and result in a market shortage in the 2026–2027 season.
Brazil's "Production Mix" Shift:
Profitability of Biofuel:
Due to the continuous war in the Middle East, crude oil prices are hovering between $91 and $106 per barrel. As a result, producing ethanol is becoming much more viable for Brazilian mills.
Change to Ethanol:
As mills reroute more cane toward ethanol production, the percentage rises to about 8.7%. This is because experts now predict a decline in Brazilian production for the forthcoming 2026–2027 season.
Effect on Exports:
Due to this change, the next season saw a 14.2% decrease (to 29 million metric tonnes). Brazil is expected to reduce sugar exports as a result.
Raw sugar:
After reaching a five-month high of 15.97 cents on Thursday, raw sugar fell 0.8 percent to 15.74 cents a pound by 1345 GMT. Dealers stated that the recent price increase had been momentarily halted by trade and origin selling, but the general sentiment was still optimistic.
The market for sugar was stimulated by rising energy costs and fertiliser costs, both of which were associated with the Middle East war.
Data on cane and sugar output in Central-South Brazil for the first half of March will be released on Friday by the Brazil cane industry body UNICA.
According to dealers, it is now more advantageous for mills to employ cane instead of sugar to make biofuel ethanol, which should reduce the amount of sweetness produced. At USD 454.30 per metric tonne, white sugar dropped 1.15 percent.
Date April 15 April 13 April 09 April 01 | ISA Daily Prices (cts/lb) 13.77 13.94 14.19 15.54 | 15-Day Average (cts/lb) 14.99 15.26 15.49 15.44 |
|---|---|---|
Compounding Market Factors:
Hormuz Strait Closure:
This crucial shipping route is presently severely interrupted by the war. Thus, almost 6% of the world's sugar trade has been restricted by this circumstance. Additionally, the availability of raw sugar from throughout the world is becoming more scarce.
Growing Costs of Production:
In addition to the move to ethanol, Brazil's diesel costs have increased by more than one real per litre due to rising oil prices. This raises the price of both harvesting and shipping sugarcane. while also putting further pressure on prices to rise.
Indian Export Limitations:
to promote its own ethanol blending initiatives and safeguard domestic supplies. In the meanwhile, India still maintains stringent raw sugar export limitations. Additionally, the global market's capacity to compensate for Brazil's decreased output is limited by these constraints.
Cocoa:
The price of London cocoa increased by 0.9 percent to 2,377 pounds a tonne, but the market was expected to lose 1.1 percent this week.
Dealers stated that the market will be closely monitoring first-quarter grinding statistics and that sluggish demand was still a concern. On April 16, reports from North America and Europe are expected to be released. The price of New York cocoa increased by 0.1 percent to $3,168 per tonne.
Coffee:
After reaching a seven-week high of USD3.1950 on Tuesday, Arabica coffee dropped by 0.1 percent to USD3.0735 a pound. Dealers predicted that prices will drop in the upcoming weeks due to the possibility of a record Brazilian crop this year. Robusta coffee increased by 0.6% to $3,618 per tonne.
